Chinese economists predict hard times, economic upturn in 2009

Special

Report:Global Financial

Crisis

BEIJING, Jan. 5 (Chinese media) -- Unemployment driven by the global financial crisis could cause social unrest in

China, although the economy looks set to reach its annual growth target of 8

percent, according to a survey of leading Chinese economists.

Han Kang, vice-president of the National School of

Administration in Beijing, warned that rising unemployment, particularly among

university graduates and migrant rural workers could lead to unrest unless it

was tackled urgently.

Han was one of 13 leading economists interviewed in a

survey by"Outlook Weekly" magazine published by Chinese media, who predicted economic

growth would fall in the first half of 2009, but surge back above 8 percent

later in the year.

"Unemployment among university graduates and migrant

workers, caused by the global economic downturn and the shrinking of

exportindustries will put much stress on Chinese society in 2009, even social

risks," Han said.

"The 4-trillion-yuan stimulus plan, intended to boost

the economy and ensure the 8 percent growth rate, may not create as many steady

jobs as expected," he said.

The U.S. economic downturn would curb China's exports

growth inthe medium term, said Wang Xiaoguang, director of Research Institution

under National Development and Reform Commission.

Other economists in the survey included Jia Kang of

the Ministry of Finance, who said, "The economic figures for the firstquarter

will be a little unpleasant, however, the economic trend of 2009 is still

optimistic with a predicted annual growth of around 8.5 percent."

Zhang Liqun, researcher with the State Council

Development and Research Center, said "The recent macro-management policies will

result as a strong curb on the falling economic growth in about six months."

Most economists agreed the second half would be a

turning pointas the looser monetary and fiscal polices gradually took effect.

Abundant savings, a secure and sound banking system,

multi-level market demand and powerful government mobilization were the four

factors that contributed to China's prospects, said economists.

The government was still aiming at an 8 percent

economic growthrate for 2009 despite challenges, Liu Mingkang, chairman of the

China Banking Regulatory Commission, said at a financial conference last month.

China's economic growth slowed to 9.9 percent in the

first three quarters of 2008 after five years of double-digit increases.The

annual economic growth of 2008 is estimated at around 9 percent by the

economists.